Marital Risk Desk, Quantitative Strategy
The Divorce Horizon
A rational-actor model estimating T*, the moment at which the immediate payout of separation overtakes the discounted present value of remaining marital utility. Enter your assumptions. Receive your countdown. This is a joke... the math is real, the premise is not.
Countdown to the divorce horizon
As her time preference rises, the present value of staying married (the falling NMB curve) decays faster. Where it drops below what she'd walk away with today (the separation-value line), a rational analyst expects the papers to be served. That crossing is T*.
Immediate value (S)
Her split of joint assets, plus a cynical support proxy: 20% of salary scaled by years together (capped at ten), plus child support that ages out as the kids do.
Marital utility (NMB)
Half of his remaining lifetime earnings to retirement at 65, discounted back to the present at her personal rate δ. Patience raises the curve; impatience collapses it.
The horizon (T*)
The first year in which S ≥ NMB. Before it, staying pays. After it, leaving does. We interpolate the exact crossing so your clock ticks by the second.
Disclaimer. This is satire. It is not financial, legal, actuarial, or marital advice, and it cannot predict human beings. Real relationships are not utility functions and your spouse is not a discount rate. If this made you laugh, share it. If it made you nervous, call your wife... the model does not account for flowers.